Uraan Pakistan: National Economic Transformation Plan (2024-2029)

Overview

Uraan Pakistan, officially the National Economic Transformation Plan (2024-2029), is a strategic roadmap launched on December 31, 2024, by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to rejuvenate Pakistan’s economy. It addresses macroeconomic instability, structural fiscal deficits, and weak export performance through a homegrown, evidence-based approach. The plan aligns with the 13th Five-Year Plan and is executed by the National Economic Transformation Unit (NETU).

The 5Es Framework

The plan is structured around five key pillars, known as the “5Es”:

1. Exports:
   • Goal: Achieve $60 billion in annual exports by 2029, doubling current levels, by prioritizing IT, manufacturing, agriculture, minerals, manpower, and the blue economy.
   • Strategies:
     • Rebrand “Made in Pakistan” as a global quality standard.
     • Expand trade agreements (e.g., EU’s GSP+, ASEAN, GCC FTA).
     • Reduce import dependency to stabilize the rupee.
   • Context: Pakistan’s economy has been import-heavy, leading to balance-of-payment issues when growth exceeds 4%. Export-led growth is seen as critical to sustainable development.
2. E-Pakistan:
   • Goal: Boost ICT exports to $5 billion, produce 200,000 IT graduates annually, achieve one unicorn startup, and reach 100 million next-generation mobile subscribers.
   • Strategies:
     • Establish “Quantum Valley” for nanotechnology and quantum computing.
     • Promote freelancing and startup ecosystems.
     • Enhance AI adoption and mobile connectivity.
   • Context: Digital transformation aims to improve competitiveness and leverage Pakistan’s youthful population.

1. Environment, Food, and Water Security:
   • Goal: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50%, increase water storage by 10 million acre-feet, and expand cultivable land by 20.3 million acres.
   • Strategies:
     • Implement sustainable agricultural practices and green technologies.
     • Enhance disaster resilience and water conservation.
   • Context: Climate change, exemplified by the 2022 floods ($40 billion in damages), underscores the need for environmental sustainability.
2. Energy and Infrastructure:
   • Goal: Increase renewable energy to 10% of the energy mix, reduce circular debt, boost railway transport (passengers from 5% to 15%, freight from 8% to 25%), and complete mega dams.
   • Strategies:
     • Develop affordable, green energy solutions.
     • Modernize transport corridors and mining infrastructure.
   • Context: Energy inefficiencies and circular debt (Rs 2–3 trillion) hinder industrial growth, necessitating reforms.
3. Equity, Ethics, and Empowerment:
   • Goal: Improve universal health coverage by 12%, literacy by 10%, female labor force participation by 17%, and reduce youth unemployment by 6%.
   • Strategies:
     • Enhance healthcare and education systems.
     • Promote gender equality and youth empowerment through programs like the Prime Minister’s Laptop Scheme and Youth Leadership Awards.
   • Context: Social equity is critical to ensure inclusive growth and reduce disparities.

Key Objectives

• Economic Growth: Achieve a sustainable GDP growth rate of 6% by 2028.
• Job Creation: Generate 1 million jobs annually.
• Investment: Attract $10 billion in private investment per year.
• Macroeconomic Stability: Reduce fiscal deficits, control inflation, and build foreign reserves.
• Long-Term Vision: Transform Pakistan into a $1 trillion economy by 2035 and $3 trillion by 2047, potentially joining the G-20.

Implementation Mechanism

• National Economic Transformation Unit (NETU):
  • Coordinates with government agencies, private sector, academia, and international partners (e.g., IMF, World Bank, ADB).
  • Monitors progress using Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), quarterly reviews, and a Results-Based Management (RBM) framework.
• Delivery Unit: Established at the Prime Minister’s Office to oversee sectoral plans and ensure accountability.
• Champions of Reforms Network: Engages professionals for policymaking and governance.
• Public-Private Partnerships: Encourages private investment and collaboration, with support from the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC).
• China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Identified as a cornerstone for infrastructure and economic development.

Challenges and Criticisms

• Implementation Gaps: Critics note a lack of specificity in execution strategies, with past plans hindered by poor governance and political instability. Effective implementation requires a competent economic team and a conducive business environment.
• IMF Constraints: Pakistan’s 25 IMF programs highlight a reliance on external borrowing, with 2025’s Extended Fund Facility ($7 billion) imposing conditionalities that may limit fiscal flexibility.
• Political Unity: The plan emphasizes a “Charter of Economy” for political consensus, but opposition from parties like PTI, as noted on X, may create obstacles.
• Funding: Financing a $1 trillion economy by 2035 is ambitious, with doubts about securing $10 billion annually in private investment given Pakistan’s 108th ranking in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index (2020).
• Climate and Structural Issues: Environmental challenges (e.g., 2025 floods in KP) and inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises (Rs 6 trillion in losses over a decade) pose risks to sustainable growth.

Context and Rationale

• Economic Background: Pakistan has faced declining exports, reliance on imports, low productivity, and a drop from the 24th to the 47th largest economy globally. The plan aims to reverse this through export-led growth and structural reforms.
• Global Inspiration: Models like South Korea and Singapore, which prioritized exports, digital innovation, and social equity, inform Uraan Pakistan’s approach.
• Citizen Engagement: Transparent implementation and public involvement are emphasized to build trust and ownership.